“小麦之州”堪萨斯州冬小麦产量、产量和经济价值的历史趋势,Crop Science

每年的天气变化和技术（肥料、灌溉、除草剂、保护性耕作、品种、机械化等）是影响限水种植系统中冬小麦 ( Triticum aestivum L.) 产量的因素。这些分析的目的是量化堪萨斯州“小麦之州”的冬小麦产量趋势、变异性、与天气的关系、产量差距和价值。本研究使用了两个数据源，即美国农业部选定县报告的冬小麦年产量和堪萨斯州科尔比、花园城、海斯和论坛报附近的堪萨斯州立大学小麦品种性能试验。研究结果显示，从 20 世纪 30 年代开始，冬小麦的收获面积和单位面积的通货膨胀调整后的市场价值均出现下降。然而，调查和研究数据均显示，冬小麦产量持续增加，增幅为 3–180 kg ha -1 年-1，随灌溉、地点、数据源或时间范围的不同而变化，但产量下降的几年除外。停滞或下降。尽管生产力有所提高，但结果表明，冬小麦的年产量变化随着时间的推移而增加。除一月、二月和六月外，非灌溉小麦产量与所有月份的降水量均呈正相关。十月至十二月的降水量与非灌溉小麦产量呈最佳正相关。小麦产量与小麦开花和成熟月份的高温呈负相关。小麦实际产量与潜在产量之间的产量差距估计为 15%–55%。单位土地面积收入的下降可能是小麦种植面积随时间减少的原因之一。我们的结论是，生产者需要更多地采用最新技术（具有耐旱和耐热性的品种）和管理，以获得产量潜力。研究应探讨提高全州小麦生产和财务回报稳定性的方法。

Historic winter wheat yield, production, and economic value trends in Kansas, the “Wheat State”

Year-to-year weather variability and technologies (fertilizer, irrigation, herbicides, conservation tillage, varieties, mechanization, and others) are among factors that affect winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in water-limited cropping systems. The objective of these analyses was to quantify winter wheat yield trends, variability, relationship with weather, yield gap, and value in the “Wheat State,” Kansas. Two data sources were used for this study, that is, annual winter wheat yield reported for selected counties from the United States Department of Agriculture and the Kansas State University wheat variety performance trial near Colby, Garden City, Hays, and Tribune, Kansas. Results of the study showed a decline in harvest area and inflation-adjusted market value per area of winter wheat beginning in the 1930s. However, both the survey and research data showed continuous increase in winter wheat yield at rates of 3–180 kg ha−1 year−1 that varied by irrigation, location, data source, or time range considered, except for a few years where yield stagnated or declined. Despite increased productivity, results indicated an increase in annual winter wheat yield variation over time. A positive correlation was observed between nonirrigated wheat yield and all months of precipitation except for January, February, and June. October through December precipitation provided the best positive correlation with nonirrigated wheat yield. Wheat yields were negatively correlated with high temperature in months that coincided with wheat flowering and maturity. The yield gap between actual and potential wheat yield was estimated at 15%–55%. The decreasing revenue per land area may be one of the reasons for decreasing wheat planted acreage over time. We concluded producers need to increase adoption of latest technology (varieties with drought and heat tolerance) and management to obtain yield potential. Research should investigate methods to increase the stability of state-wide wheat production and financial return.